Market brief parser
Extract the exact question, closing date, resolution source, and settlement caveats before any probability work begins.
AI research desk for prediction-market questions
PredictionMarket Radar
Paste a market question or URL, extract the resolution rules, compare implied probability with independent swarm consensus, and turn the gap into evidence-backed research cards.
Research Preview
Brief -> Swarm -> Gap -> Evidence
Parsed brief
Will the Fed cut rates by September 2026?
Expiry 2026-09-16 | Source Official FOMC statement
Swarm probability
54%
7-agent consensus
Consensus gap
62% market vs 54% consensus
Market is 8 points richer than consensus
Evidence card
Resolution wording is narrow; headline risk is moderate.
Risk flag
Liquidity, rule ambiguity, manipulation, and stale evidence checked.
Text-first
Manual URL, RSS, or pasted market question intake.
Multi-agent
Independent probability estimates before aggregation.
Evidence cards
Source snippets, risk notes, and exportable briefs.
Core workflow
From market page to research brief.
PredictionMarket Radar keeps the first technical path deliberately practical: public market pages, RSS items, and manual URLs first; then price history cache, evidence cards, and report export. No automatic order placement.
1Parse the market
Question, expiry, resolution source, market probability, and settlement wording.
2Run independent forecasts
Base-rate, rules, news, liquidity, and skeptic agents produce separate probabilities.
3Compare the gap
Market implied probability is compared with consensus, spread, and evidence confidence.
4Export the brief
Evidence cards, risk notes, and next refresh time become a clean analyst report.
Risk controls
Built for markets where the question is as important as the price.
Swarm probability
Multiple agents reason independently, then the system aggregates probability, confidence, and rationale spread.
Consensus gap
Compare market implied probability with the MiroFish-style consensus and spot where the crowd and evidence disagree.
Risk flags
Liquidity, rule ambiguity, manipulation, stale evidence, and regional source gaps stay visible on every brief.
Pricing
Start with Pro annual, keep the desk lean.
Annual billing is selected by default and saves 50%. Pro is the default checkout path for live swarm consensus and report export.
Research
Solo researchers
$
24.50
/ mo
Billed annually as $294. Save 50%.
25 tracked markets
- Market brief parser
- Daily evidence refresh
- Swarm probability summary
- Consensus gap snapshot
- CSV evidence export
Default Pro
Pro
Analysts and trading desks
$
74.50
/ mo
Billed annually as $894. Save 50%.
150 tracked markets
- Everything in Research
- 4-hour refresh cadence
- Independent agent rationale cards
- Price history cache
- PDF research report export
- Slack-ready alert summaries
Desk
Multi-region research teams
$
199.50
/ mo
Billed annually as $2394. Save 50%.
750 tracked markets
- Everything in Pro
- Queue jobs and API access
- Custom source watchlists
- Regional analyst workspaces
- Priority support
- Portfolio-level risk reports
Questions
What analysts usually ask before checkout.
Does PredictionMarket Radar place trades?
No. It is research software for market briefs, probability consensus, evidence cards, and report exports. It does not execute trades, custody funds, or provide brokerage services.
Can I use it for Polymarket-style markets?
Yes. Paste a public market URL or manually enter the market question, expiry, resolution source, and implied probability. The workspace is not affiliated with Polymarket.
What unlocks after payment?
Live swarm refresh, tracked market watchlists, price history cache, exportable reports, and higher refresh frequency unlock according to the selected plan.
Why link to MiroFish?
The workflow uses MiroFish-style multi-agent simulation principles. The external link lets research teams inspect the broader swarm-intelligence direction.